Hidden state prediction: a modification of classic ancestral state reconstruction algorithms helps unravel complex symbioses

Complex symbioses between animal or plant hosts and their associated microbiotas can involve thousands of species and millions of genes. Because of the number of interacting partners, it is often impractical to study all organisms or genes in these host-microbe symbioses individually. Yet new phylogenetic predictive methods can use the wealth of accumulated data on diverse model organisms to make inferences into the properties of less well-studied species and gene families. Predictive functional profiling methods use evolutionary models based on the properties of studied relatives to put bounds on the likely characteristics of an organism or gene that has not yet been studied in detail. These techniques have been applied to predict diverse features of host-associated microbial communities ranging from the enzymatic function of uncharacterized genes to the gene content of uncultured microorganisms. We consider these phylogenetically informed predictive techniques from disparate fields as examples of a general class of algorithms for Hidden State Prediction (HSP), and argue that HSP methods have broad value in predicting organismal traits in a variety of contexts, including the study of complex host-microbe symbioses.